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It’s a sad, sad time for your old friend Woodsheder as another season of Conference USA football comes to a end.  It has been a crazy, and for most of the CUSA members, disappointing year.  At least we still have one more week…and what an important slate of game we have.  The West Division title is still up for grabs and three teams have must win games to become bowl eligible.

First, the West Division.  It is pretty simple.  If Houston beats Rice, they win the division and will host East Carolina next Saturday in the Championship Game.  If Houston loses to Rice, then a Tulsa win over Marshall would mean they host ECU next week.  Finally, if Rice and Marshall both win, the Owls would host the title game.

As for the teams on the postseason fence; UTEP, Southern Miss and Memphis each need a win this weekend to even their record at 6-6, making them bowl eligible.  However, these three teams are fighting for only two bowl bids as Rice, Houston, East Carolina and Tulsa have already secured four of the conference’s six bowl ties. It will be interesting to see who is left out if they all win this weekend.

As for my genius prognosticating, I already qualified for a BCS bowl long ago.  Another 4-1 week both straight up and against the spread allows me to maintain the top spot in the BCS.  It also brings the season totals to 65-25 straight up and 52-35-3 ATS.

This week’s preview is brought to by Rice Girl.  It has a nice, safe Thanksgiving theme for your viewing enjoyment anywhere…even at work

NOVEMBER 28

UTEP (+5.5)@ East Carolina

East Carolina will get a taste of what’s to come next week when they get spanked in the Conference Championship game.  Against ULALA and Houston, and for only the fourth time since 1965, the Miners went back-to-back game without turning the ball over.  UTEP needs this game to get to a bowl.  They win big.  Miners 38, Pirates 19

NOVEMBER 29

 UAB (+8.5)@ UCF

UAB quarterback Joe Webb needs 59 yard rushing to reach the 1,000 yard mark for the season.  Why do I mention this?  Because that is about the only thing of interest in this game.  Knights 31, Blazers 24

Southern Miss (-13.5)@ SMU

Southern Miss has been playing well as of late.  A big win over ECU two weeks ago (they had a bye last week) kept the postseason dream alive for the Golden Eagles.  As for SMU, they are finally ending what has been a painfully long first year for June Jones and the Mustangs.  Continuing the meaningless fact theme of this week’s entry, SMU kick returner Jessie Henderson is the current NCAA leader in return yards.  This, of course, is not a good thing because you only get to return kickoffs after your opponent has scored.  Golden Eagles 37, Mustangs 24

Tulane (+13.5)@ Memphis

Memphis needs a win to go bowling.  And Tiger junior receiver Duke Calhoun has caught at least one pass in every game he has played in so far, 35 games in a row.  Green Wave 24, Tigers 23

Tulsa (-14)@ Marshall

Tulsa QB Paul Johnson has 40 TD passes this season, only two behind Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford for the NCAA lead.  Even though Tulsa will be scoreboard watching, they should have little trouble with the Herd.  Golden Hurricane 54, Thundering Herd 23

Houston (-3)@ Rice

The Battle for the Bayou Bucket!  Awesome!  This time with the West Division on the line.  Should be another high scoring CUSA battle.  Somehow the Cougars are favored by a field goal, despite the fact that the Owls are undefeated at home and their only losses have come at Texas, at Vanderbilt and at Tulsa.  Houston continues to have first half trouble only scoring nine points against UTEP last week.  If not for a 26-point explosion in the fourth, Houston would have lost that game.  Rice on the other hand starts quickly and has had their trouble in the second half, that is when they do have trouble.  I like the Owls to win because Houston’s pass defense has been suspect all season.  I think the Owls score early and often as Chase Clement will have little trouble finding Jarett Dillard, James Casey and the other Rice receivers.  Houston can and must keep pace this week; they can ill afford to fall behind three scores as they did last week.   While I hate to see my Coogs miss out on a chance to win the conference championship, it will save me the trouble trying to find away to watch the 11am kickoff of the title game while me and the wife are on vacation next week.  So, at least I will have that going for me.  Owls 45, Coguars 38

Be sure to come back next week for you 2008 Conference USA Championship Game preview!

Sadness courses through my veins.  Aside from the annual Big XII Bowl Extravaganza, this is the last “Around the Big 12” entry of the year.  It all goes by so quickly, doesn’t it?  Will you miss me?  I’ll sure miss you!

Sometimes the CFB season feels a lot like the brief courtship of a lovely woman.  You all know exactly what I mean.  You meet her, you fall in love with all her charms, she indulges all of your bizarre desires over several wonderful weekends, and then — just like that, she’s gone!  You want her to stay around forever, but she won’t!  And now you don’t know what to do without her!  And she refuses to answer your phone calls, no matter how many times you call!!  And she won’t return your text messages and emails, either!!  And she also won’t acknowledge the dozens of flowers you left on her doorstep!!!  And the bitch refuses to withdraw the restraining order she filed!!!  Or pay the ransom you demanded when you kidnapped her dog and burned your name into her front lawn!!!!  Well, perhaps I’ve said too much here.   

But, anyhow, haven’t we had such great memories this year, friends?  In this traditional week of tryptophan and giving thanks, there’s so much to be thankful for in our wonderful conference: The greatest season in Big 12 history, The great A&M train wreck - offering weeks upon weeks of laughter, Mangino jokes, Chaps, and so forth. 

In the interest of “equal time”, I’d also like to tell you what I’m NOT thankful for.  I am NOT thankful for Ron Prince’s stupid ass.  Last week, K-State led 38-23 over Iowa State with seconds remaining (K-State was favored by 9.5).  Iowa State had the ball and was threatening to score.  But with so little time left, the ‘Clones were perfectly content to just let the clock run out.  But THEN….genius-boy Ron Prince stepped in and called timeout with 1 second left, so his defense (and his coaching career) could have one more play.  Well, guess what…Iowa State responded by taking a shot at the endzone, and of course they scored a TD.  Making the final 38-30.  Eight points, spread covered.  One last f-you to all the KSU gamblers out there, eh Coach Prince?  I HATE YOU.  I’m 82-9, and 4 of my losses have involved K-State.  This is why I never gamble, and this is why I hate Ron Prince, and this is why, if I actually DID gamble, I would hate Ron Prince with the fire of a thousand angry suns. 

Here’s the other reason I never gamble.  I was one of the few imbeciles on Planet Earth who sincerely thought that Tech would win outright at OU.  I would like to hereby withdraw the preposterous comments I made about OU’s defense in last week’s ATB12 - you know, all that ridiculous guff about OU’s defense “sucking”.  That defense we saw on Saturday night could have stormed the beaches of Normandy with 11 men and ended the entire war in 3 ½ hours.   I’m sorry, Mr. Venables, sir.  Good luck in your new head coaching gig.  I’m sorry Travis Lewis.  I’m REALLY sorry Nic Harris.  Sir.  Please do not come to my residence or place of business to exact revenge for my foolish words.  Watching the Sooners win yet another f-ing Big XII title will be painful enough.  On that note…let’s go Around the Big 12 and say goodbye to another regular season!  Goodbye, another regular season!!!

Bye Everybody! See Ya Next Year!

Last Week: 1-1 Overall (0-2 vs Spread)
Season: 82-9 Overall (39-41 vs Spread)

Texas A&M at Texas (-34)
THURSDAY, 7:00pm [ESPN]

If Texas A&M wins this game, they will have won 5 out of their last 14 against the Horns (~ 36% winning percentage since 1995).  An A&M victory would also move their all-time winning percentage in this 100+ year rivalry to around 36%.  So you could say that an A&M victory would normalize a century-long trend.  I guess.  This is honestly the only statistic I could find that gives A&M any hope on Thursday.  And yes, I know the statistic is pathetic and worthless, but hey, so are the Aggies!  Given their irrational obsession with “t.u.”, look for Mike Sherman to employ a ridiculously conservative, run-all-the-time offense in this game.  It will leave his team with absolutely no chance of winning the game, but it will shorten the game and limit the chances for Texas “style points” in this stupid, annoying BCS Beauty Contest.  The Aggies will consider this 45-3 loss a moral victory - because all that “burning desire” (and chicken shit playcalling) kept the game from being 66-3.  By the way, 8 out of the Longhorns’ last 9 victories over A&M have been by double-digits.  Make that 9 out of 10, good sir!  As the great William Shakespeare would say, the Ags will be pwnd h4rdc0r3z. 

LONGHORNS - 45  Aggies - 3

Colorado at Nebraska (-17)
2:30pm [ABC]

Look, I know that Colorado is poop in golden helmets, but I was still surprised that Nebraska is a 17 point favorite in this game…until I read that Colorado’s two starting safeties may miss the game.  They will be replaced by two freshmen.  Joe Ganz is going to eat those guys up like so many turkey leftover sandwiches.  So, yeah, I don’t expect this to be much of a game, but it will be better than going X-mas shopping.  Only because ANYTHING is better than X-mas shopping.  CU-Nebraska is one of the most underrated rivalries in America.  People from outside of the region or the conference may not know it, but these two fan bases HATE each other.  If you want some proof of this, read this article.  And pay special attention to the comments section at the bottom.  Hooray, venom! 

HUSKERS - 37  Buffs - 10

Kansas at Missouri (-14)
11:30am [FSN]

For one season, the KU-Mizzou rivalry received all the hullabaloo normally reserved for the classics: Alabama-Auburn, Texas-OU, Ohio State-Michigan, etc.  It was a top-5 matchup, with national TV coverage, College Gameday, the works.  Now, the rivalry is back to its rightful place at an 11:30am FSN kickoff.  I happened to meet a few Mizzou fans over the past couple of weeks, and…DAMN.  They are smug as hell about this game.  Most of them are too busy awaiting the Big 12 Championship Game to give any concern to the Jayhawkers.  I have a feeling that Kansas will circle the wagons for this one, and that Mizzou will be distracted with thoughts of NEXT week’s trip to Arrowhead Stadium, not THIS week’s trip to Arrowhead Stadium.  By the way, after spending Saturday November 15^th in Lawrence, Kansas, I have one request for the Big XII Conference: Can we PLEASE stop fucking playing Big 12 title games in an outdoor stadium in Kansas City in December?  We have lovely domes all over the Big 12 region.  For fuck’s sake!

TIGERS - 31  Jayhawks -21

Baylor at Texas Tech (-20)
2:30pm [VERSUS]

If I’m Baylor coach Art Briles (and thank God I’m not) here’s what I do this week.  Ditch Baylor’s traditional green&gold unis and scrounge up some crimson and crème uniforms.  Get Nike to produce some red and white helmets with interlocking B.U. logo.  And wear those badboys to Lubbock.  Can you imagine how Tech would respond upon seeing OU, part deux, take the field?  Graham Harrell’s pants may take on an amber hue, if you get my drift.  Seriously, this is like Baylor’s best chance to win.    This game will probably be quite similar to Baylor’s trip to Austin a few weeks back.  The Horns were still in mourning, they let Baylor hang around a while, and then nature took its course in the second half.   I’m taking Baylor on the road to beat the spread.  I am such an idiot.  A spectacular idiot!

RED RAIDERS - 41  Baylor - 27

Oklahoma (-7) at Oklahoma State
7:00pm [ABC]

I may be dumb, but I’m not stupid.  There is no way in hell I am picking against OU this week.  Now, Oklahoma State has played tight games with the Sooners when the game is held in Stillwater.  The last 3 OU victories in Stillwater were by 5, 3, and 6. 

• Year 2000 (National Championship) : Sooners win 12-7 over a 3-8 oSu team coached by BOB SIMMONS (lol)!!
• Year 2002 (Rose Bowl Championship) : Sooners lose 38-28
• Year 2004 (MNC Runner-up) : Sooners win 38-35
• Year 2006 (Big 12 Champs) : Sooners win 27-21

But unless the Oklahoma State offense can establish the run, this one will not be that close.  If you asked me a few weeks ago, I would have said oSu had a fighting chance to rack up some yards on the ground.  But the offensive and defensive lines for OU look 10x better than they did back during the Red River Shootout.  I don’t see this one staying close for long.  And of course, OU will be firing both barrels until the clock runs out.  It’s all about style points, people!!!

SOONERS - 44  Cowboys - 21

And with that, see you on the week of August 31^st, 2009, when Around the Big 12 breaks down more exciting matchups, such as TEXAS vs. LOUISIANA-MONROE!!  TEXAS TECH vs. NORTH DAKOTA!!!  And KANSAS STATE vs. MASSACHUSETTS!!!!!

Friends, I have writer’s block.  With only two games on this weekend’s Big XII schedule, I tried to run through all kinds of zany ideas to fatten up this week’s “Around the Big 12″.  Well, after three days of meditation and brainstorming….I got nothin.  In fact, I even struggled with writing the capsules for this week’s games!  Maybe I’m bitter that the Big XII South crown and a possible shot at MNC glory likely comes down to the winner of Texas Tech and Oklahoma.  Maybe I’m just depressed that my Horns aren’t playing this weekend, and I’ll be forced to sit through Michigan-Ohio State (blech!).  Or, maybe I’m just a tank.  That’s it, I’m a tank! 

This is a tank. And hey, it’s topless, just like Woodsheder’s weekly photos!

 

Sigh, let’s get this over with.  Prepare for disappointment!  If there’s one thing about this blog, it’s consistent.  Consistently disappointing!  So hooray for that. 

Last Week: 5-0 Overall (2-3 vs Spread)
Season: 81-8 Overall (39-39 vs Spread)

Iowa State at Kansas State (-9.5)
2:35pm [Fox College Sports]
It’s quite fitting that Iowa State and Kansas State are the first two Big 12 teams to conclude their seasons - because, really, who wants to watch these guys play any more football?  How many empty seats will we see in Bill Snyder Family Stadium this weekend?  12,000?  Sounds about right.  There will be 3 empty seats on my couch when this game is on television, because I will not be watching it either.  Look, I love Big XII football, but if I watched this game, it would be less a show of love and more a show of severe, unhealthy obsession. 
WILDCATS - 33  Cyclones - 20

Texas Tech at Oklahoma (-7)
7:00pm [ABC]
Hey, look, it’s “Game of the Year — Part 6!“  Since the loss to Texas, Oklahoma’s dominance has been staggering.  But let’s calm down a second and remember who they played.  1) A Kansas team that has been thoroughly exposed, 2) An absolutely horrible Kansas State team, 3) Nebraska - who immediately farted away any chance of competing with 3 turnovers in the first 5 minutes, and….4) Texas A&M - BWAHAHA.  Come on.  I might look real impressive during four trips to Putt-Putt, but it doesn’t mean I’m ready to join the PGA Tour.

I’m going to say it.  Oklahoma’s defense SUCKS.  The only hope OU has of slowing down Texas Tech is to force turnovers.  Yes, OU leads the nation in turnover margin, but that’s largely because they’ve only coughed up the football 8 times.  They have forced the same number of turnovers as Tech - 24.

Oklahoma’s substandard pass defense and pass rush will require that they commit big time to covering Crabtree, Britton, et al.  Tech should be able to run the ball with ease.  Oklahoma will try to run the ball to control T.O.P., and this, my friends, is where the game will be won or lost.  I am still most impressed with the performance of Tech’s d-line this year.  And I think they can do enough to keep Murray and Brown in check and get the ball back to their offense.

Texas Tech will get on OU 10-0 or 14-0 early, and send shock waves through Owen Field.  Then they will hold off a late OU flurry to seal a trip December 6 to Kansas City. 
RED RAIDERS - 36  Sooners - 31

What a wonderful, wonderful night last Saturday was.  A seventy point onslaught by the mighty Cougars of Houston has them in control of their own destiny in the West Division.  Two wins and Houston will host the Conference USA Championship Game for the second time in three years.  However, a loss and the door is open for Rice or Tulsa to host the title game. 

No matter who wins the West, they will have the luxury of playing the last team standing from the East Division’s round robin of suck.  East Carolina had a chance to virtually lock up the division, but fell on the road to Southern Miss.  Marshall had a chance to gain ground on ECU, but got embarrassed at home by Central Florida.  Memphis made out the best last week only because they had a bye.  One of those three will have the honor of losing by three touchdowns to the West winner.

But I am getting ahead of myself.  We still have two weeks of CUSA football, so let’s get to it!  Last week, I was just 1-4 against the spread and straight up.  Terrible.  Now the season totals are 48-34-3 ATS and 61-24 SU.

the week thirteen preview is brought to you by this lovely co-ed from Southern Methodist University…Go Mustangs!

NOVEMBER 22

UCF (+5)@ Memphis

The Knights got their first road win of the season at Marshall, hurting the Herd’s chances at making the conference championship game.  Now UCF gets another chance to play spoiler on the road, this time at Memphis.  Memphis has to win out and hope that ECU loses twice and Marshall once to win the division.  However, the Tigers only need one more win to become bowl eligible and get one of the conference’s six bowl bids.  Tigers 27, Knights 26

Tulane (+28.5)@ Tulsa

Tulsa is still very much in the hunt for the West title despite the beating they took in Houston this past Saturday.  The Coogs still have to play UTEP and Rice, both games they could easily lose.  Tulsa has already beaten those two teams and should have no problems with Tulane this week.  I am thinking Tulsa will win out and end up hosting the Championship game after Houston loses, but I am hoping it doesn’t happen.  Golden Hurricane 63, Green Wave 24

Marshall (+9.5)@ Rice

Marshall really hurt themselves by losing to UCF at home last week.  Now they need to win out and have East Carolina lose its last two to win the division.  Even if they don’t win the division, the Herd still need to win out to become bowl eligible.  After Tulsa’s loss last week, Rice is right back in the West Division hunt.  They will still need Tulsa to lose one more time and win out, so it’s not looking too good.  However, another win or two will move them up the CUSA bowl ladder.  Owls 37, Thundering Herd 30

UTEP (+17)@ Houston

Tulsa’s loss also keeps UTEP’s division championship hope alive as well.  For the Miners to host the title game they will have to win out and both Rice and Tulsa have to lose out, since the Owls and Golden Hurricane both beat UTEP heads up.  As mentioned before Houston controls its own destiny.  Last week, the Cougars became the fourth CUSA team to score at least 70 points in a game this season…that’s right, the fourth.  Tulsa and Rice each scored 77 and Southern Miss scored 70 earlier in the year.  Houston’s performance last week resulted in them being named the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl National Team of the Week.  Hell, that’s better than actually playing in the Fiesta Bowl, right?  Cougars 45, Miners 37

East Carolina (-6.5)@ UAB

Despite the freefall the Pirates are currently going through, they only need to one of their last two to win the East Division. They have beaten both Marshall and Memphis, so they have the tie-breaker over both of them.  But I will be rooting for UAB in this game just so next Friday’s national televised UTEP @ ECU game will have some meaning.  Blazers 24, Pirates 23

Do you feel that strange tinge in the air?  No, it’s not the first of the winter cold fronts.  It’s something much more threatening.  My dear friends, brace yourselves, we have entered the era of Red Raider Rule.  This is something that’s been hanging around for years as a sort of silly, overrated, empty threat - like Africanized killer bees or Charlie Weis. 

Well, friends, after watching Tech completely dismantle a very good Oklahoma State team, I’m now completely convinced.  The guys from Lubbock are no longer a set of paper tigers with inflated stats. They are legit.  And I, for one, welcome our new Red Raider overlords.  I’d like to remind them that as a trusted Big XII Conference blogger, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves. 

welcome to the apocalypse, y'all

Last Week: 6-0 Overall (4-2 vs Spread)
Season: 76-8 Overall –90.5%!!!– (37-36 vs Spread)

Texas (-13) at Kansas
11:30am [FSN]
I’m making my first appearance at the Kansas University campus for a football game.  After this weekend, I will have seen a CFB game in every Big XII stadium except for Owen Field.  No disrespect, Sooners, but we never play up there, so I don’t know when I’ll ever get to see your place in action.  This game makes me extremely nervous.  We all know what happens whenever Texas fans start dreaming of backdoor routes to BCS glory.  They lose (K-State, 2006).  They lose (Texas A&M, 2006).  They lose (Texas A&M, 2007).  And let’s not forget 2004, when the Horns played like crap in Lawrence and nearly peed away their shot at a Rose Bowl date with Michigan.  Fortunately, Mack Brown seems to be saying all the right things, so hopefully we won’t need Colt McCoy to pull out any “4^th and 18″ magic.  None of the “BCS scenario analysis” means a damn thing, unless Texas wins its last two.  The Kansas offense is vulnerable to a pass rush, and Texas should have their big uglies back at full speed this week to chase down Todd Reesing.  That’s good.  The Horns win this one, but it’s a real nailbiter.  Hopefully Mangino doesn’t go on another post-game rampage this time….

Longhorns - 30  Jayhawks - 26

Texas A&M at Baylor (-8)
3:00pm [NO TV]
The Battle of the Brazos returns for another year.  As far as I can tell, Brazos is an old Spanish word that means “Basement”.  Believe it or not, the Baylor Bears are an 8 point home favorite against the Aggies.  One of my favorite weekly traditions is “Statistics of Amazing Baylor Futility”.  Here are a few more SABF nuggets for you.  This is the first time Baylor has been favored over Texas A&M in 17 years (they lost that one in 1991, 34-12, by the way).  Baylor has not been favored by this many points against a conference opponent since they were a 10-point favorite over Missouri in the Big XII inaugural season.  Oh, they lost that one, 49-42.    Just when we thought Texas A&M was getting a little better, they rolled out an absolutely putrid performance against Oklahoma.  Seriously, there were times when OU busted runs up the middle with holes so wide that there were no Aggie defenders to be found on the tv screen!  Robert Griffin bounces back from a freshman-like effort in Austin, and leads Baylor to another hilarious victory over A&M.  Giggle!
Bears - 35  Aggies - 30

Nebraska (-7) at Kansas State
2:30pm [PPV]
Well, I guess Ron Prince’s “answer” didn’t work against Missouri now, huh?   I wonder…did the “answer” have anything to do with Josh Freeman completing 18 passes for a measly 121 yards?   On the other sideline, Bo Pelini has given his defensive starters their “Blackshirts” back.  Apparently, the Husker defense earned this honor thanks to their improved performance last week, after they surrendered 35 points, and 400 yards….to Kansas.  Sometimes I wish I had a time machine.  I would travel back to 1994 and show that last sentence to Huskers fans, just to see their reaction.   I thought about picking KSU to win this game.  After all, it is November, which means the leaves start changing colors and Ron Prince pulls one ridiculous upset victory out of his hat.   But this time I think the Wildcats have truly quit on the season.  Freeman is more worried about the Draft Combine than watching film.  Huskers roll, KSU tacks on some late sympathy points.
Huskers - 35  Wildcats - 21

Missouri (-26.5) at Iowa State
5:30pm [FSN]
It must have been another classic Gene Chizik halftime speech last weekend.  For the second time this year, ISU took a double-digit lead and shutout into the halftime break against a Big XII foe.  And for the second time this year, the Cyclones blew the opportunity for a win.  I haven’t watched Iowa State closely enough to know just what is wrong up in Ames.  Because, really, who can sit through an entire Iowa State football game?   Chase Daniel will sit through the entire second half, because this game will be 35-7 at half.
Tigers - 49  Iowa State - 13

Oklahoma State (-17.5) at Colorado
7:00pm [ABC]
Last week in Lubbock, Texas Tech ran 80 plays on the Pokes’ defense.  The Red Raiders scored 8 touchdowns, and earned 38 first downs.  Just think about that a second.  57.5% of Texas Tech’s plays resulted in either a touchdown or a first down.  I consulted my bible of football knowledge, and it informed me that it is EXTREMELY hard to win under that scenario.   Fortunately, Ok State’s defense gets a week of vacation in lovely Boulder.  The Buffs average a paltry 339.4 yards per game and 19.4 points per game.  The Buffs looked dead in the water last week against ISU, down 24-13 with 7:00 to play, until they finally woke up long enough to steal a 28-24 victory.  Oklahoma State still has a lot to play for - namely, a shot at a 10-win season, which is nothing to sneeze at in Stillwater.  They might fool around a little early, but Colorado has no hope of slowing down the oSu offense. 
Cowboys - 38  Buffs - 13

Only three weeks left!  Most teams have only played five conference games up to this point, so who will meet December 6th for the CUSA Championship Game is still up in the air.  Seven teams are still mathematically alive for a shot at going to the title game.  I would get into the specific scenarios for each team, but there are way too many possibilities and you probably care way too little.  This week’s games should make the picture much more clearer.

What is already clear is the fact that I am a football genius.  I was 5-1 against the spread last week (47-30-3 for the season) and a perfect 6-0 straight up (60-20).  Cha-ching!

they are not really cheerleaders, but here is your Week 12 picture…you can thank Playboy for having a “Girls of Conference USA” pictorial recently.

NOVEMBER 15

East Carolina (+3)@ Southern Miss

Last week, East Carolina became the first Conference USA team since South Florida (bet you didn’t know the Bulls use to be in CUSA) to win back-to-back overtime games.  The win also put them in the driver’s seat to win the East Division, with a one game lead over Marshall and the tie-breaker over the Thundering Herd. Southern Miss was able to keep their ice thin bowl hopes alive after beating UCF last week.  The Pirates will put an end to that dream.  Pirates 27, Golden Eagles 24

UAB (+5.5)@ Tulane

A meaningless CUSA game.  I know what you are thinking…isn’t every CUSA game meaningless?  Why do you have to be like that?  I mean, come on, I don’t make fun of the stuff you like.  Why can’t you just let me enjoy my Conference USA football?  No, no, no…it’s too late to try and apologize.  Just forget it.  Green Wave 33, Blazers 24

UCF (+7.5)@ Marshall

Marshall has five losses now, so they probably need to win out to get on the six conference bowl bids.  Plus, if they win out and East Carolina stumbles along the way, Marshall could win the East Division.  UCF is just bad.  They can’t generate any offense and when you play against CUSA defenses on a weekly basis, there is really no excuse for this.  Thundering Herd 27, Golden Knights 20

SMU (+9.5)@ UTEP

There will be many points scored in this game.  That’s all I got.  Miners 45, Mustangs 38

Tulsa (-4.5)@ Houston

This is your Conference USA Game of the Week!  Tulsa wins and they almost guarantee that they will host the CUSA Championship Game.  Houston wins and they control their own West Division destiny.  Both of these teams have explosive offenses, but the Cougars tend to hurt themselves from time to time.  The fact that the Houston defense is the better of the two will not be enough to overcome the turnovers and numerous penalties their offense will tally.  I think that the 56-7 whipping Tulsa laid on Houston last year will be on the Cougars minds to start the game and the Coogs jump out to the early lead.  But emotion only lasts so long and Tulsa is the better team.  Golden Hurricane 44, Cougars 37

16-18 = C-YA!

Does this blog have some superpowers or what?  It only took a few hours after this week’s ATB12 to be posted before Ron Prince “resigned“. 

Normally, I’d be pretty disappointed, as Prince promised to offer me weeks upon weeks of great material.  However, in a conference with Mangino, Coach Hawk, Pelini, Gundy, Mike Leach, and the Pinkelnator…well, the conference is never going to be short on material.  Good night, sweet Prince.

Welcome to November in the Big 12 Conference, also known as the Month of Broken Hearts, where the round-robin steel-cage death match tournament continues every weekend.  This past Saturday it was the Longhorns’ turn to have their dreams crushed.  Maybe not crushed, but severely crippled. 

I’ll tell you what WAS crushed on Saturday night, and that’s my heart.  I’m still bitter.  So let’s get straight to business.

Last Week: 5-1 Overall (2-4 vs Spread)
Season: 70-8 Overall (33-34 vs Spread)

Baylor at Texas (-25.5)
11:00am [FSN]
Oh, Blake Gideon, how your butterfingers continue to haunt my dreams.  Hey, I would have gladly taken it, but let’s face facts.  If Texas holds onto that INT, it would have been one of the all-time robbery games in Mack Brown’s history.  It’s a credit to the Texas program that they can steal so many road wins despite some seriously sloppy play, but I’m more concerned that this Texas squad has been trending downward over the past 2 ½ games since the first half skull-hammering of Missouri.  Baylor is usually a great cure for the once-defeated blues, but not so much anymore.  With Orakpo likely out, superfrosh Robert Griffin should get some big plays on the Texas defense.  But not enough.
Longhorns - 44 Bears - 23

Iowa State at Colorado (-10)
1:00pm [NO TV]
Wanna know how I know you’re bad?  The front of your jersey says “Colorado”.  Wanna know how I know you’re REALLY bad?  You’re a 10 point underdog to Colorado.  Usually for each of these games I do a little cursory research, and see if I can find some juicy tidbits or funny items to discuss.  For this game, I’m not even searching for anything.  Who cares about this battle for 12^th place? Chances are, you skimmed right over this one anyway.  You don’t care about these teams.  Pig dog, monkey picnic apple coffee cup, felt tip pen left field astronaut.  See.  You didn’t even read that last sentence and you don’t even realize that I’m only filling space!
Buffs - 20  Cyclones - 17

Kansas (-1.5) at Nebraska
I wouldn’t start getting too excited about Kansas just yet.  They’re a good team, but beating up on Kansas State is absolutely nothing to get excited about.  Nebraska is MAD after last week’s embarrassing showing in Norman.  Bo Pelini did not allow his players to talk to the media after that game.  Bo Pelini is an angry fella.  So are his players, after being reminded all week of last year’s 76-39 embarrassment in Lawrence.  I fear that Mark Mangino is walking into a buzzsaw.  And what a mess that would be!
Huskers - 34  Jayhawks - 23

Oklahoma (-25) at Texas A&M
2:30pm [ABC]
Here’s what Texas A&M has to look forward to when they meet the Sooners on Saturday.  Last week, with 9:27 left to play in the FIRST QUARTER, OU led Nebraska by four touchdowns.  The Sooners were on pace to score 224 points, which would have broken the mark for the most lopsided score in CFB history (Ga. Tech 222, Cumberland 0).  But fear not, Aggie fans.  There are a few reasons why you can be optimistic about avoiding a similar bludgeoning.  First of all, OU always has their hands full in College Station.  2000 (Won by 4), 2002 (Lost by 4), 2004 (Won by 7), 2006 (Won by 1).  Secondly, the loss of Auston English is the second devastating injury to hit the beleaguered Sooner defense.  The Aggies should be able to score some points.  Finally, believe it or not, the Aggies are 3-0 in their last three games against the spread. 
Sooners - 38  Aggies - 20

Kansas State at Missouri (-26)
6:00pm [FSN]
In ‘02, Kansas State surrendered 91 total points in 8 conference games.  In the last two weeks, they’ve allowed 110 total points to KU and OU.  During a press conference this week, Ron Prince boldly declared that KSU had figured out the answer to cure their recent awful play.  Of course, the media followed up by asking what, exactly, the answer is.   Prince responded, “I would rather not reveal the answer.  Believe it or not, we do have one.  We’re going to apply it.”  What a clown.  I’m going to miss this idiot when he’s fired in a few weeks.  Taking a cue from his clueless coach, Deon Murphy last week declared that he would “take one [punt return] to the crib” against Kansas.  Here is a tip, Deon.  When your defense is so horrendous that you only force ONE PUNT in the entire game (returned by Mr. Murphy for 11 yards), maybe you should keep your mouth shut.  Can we please send this freaking program back to its permanent spot in the nation’s basement?  (Hint: they’re at #100).  I am so sick of these cockroaches.  Thank you. 
Tigers - 51  Wildcats - 21

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (-3)
7:00pm [ABC]
Last week’s victory over Texas finally legitimized Mike Leach’s program once and for all.  Is Texas Tech for real?  The Red Raiders answered that question with a resounding “YES, MFer!” on Saturday night.  Most impressive to me was the play of the Tech defensive line, which started the game by blowing up a weak-ass I-formation run play for a safety.  Then they proceeded to harass and beat up Colt McCoy for most of the night.  This week’s game against Oklahoma State has a different set of prizes at stake.  This isn’t about respectability, but a legitimate shot at the national title.  This is the toughest test remaining, besides complacency (yes, I know they still have OU and possibly Mizzou left).  Against oSu last year, Texas Tech threw for a ridiculous 646 yards (TWO receivers - Crabtree and Amendola - had 200+ yds), but they turned the ball over 3 times (2 fumbles, 1 on downs).  Meanwhile, Oklahoma State had 350+ yards rushing (3 running backs over 100 yards).  It’s all coming down to whether or not Tech can hold onto the football, and whether Tech can limit the big play.  I ran a statistical analysis of Zac Robinson’s yards per completions vs oSu’s points per game, and the correlation is r=.74.  That’s pretty strong.  The Cowboys’ defense is better this year so they will not give up 646 yards passing, but they’ll give up plenty.  And they won’t be able to consistently run against Tech’s much improved front line.  TTech forces two Zac Robinson interceptions on deep balls in the second half to squeak it out. 
Red Raiders - 38  Cowboys - 31

Tulsa ended my dream of a Conference USA team playing in the BCS when they laid an egg against an average Arkansas team.  This was a chance to show that the best CUSA team could play with the big boy conferences.  But I guess it wasn’t meant to be.

Another thing that hasn’t been meant to be lately is my picks.  I was 1-3-2 against the spread last week…yeah, two pushes.  I have said before that those should count as losses, since that is the way Vegas would see it.  But I need all the help I can get, so they are ties for me.  That brings the season total to 42-29-3 ATS and after a 2-4 week straight up, 54-20 for the season.

this week’s preview is brought to you by the East Carolina Cheerleaders…nothing special

NOVEMBER 8

Army @ Rice (-9)

Army has been playing much better after starting the season with three embarrassing home losses.  And they did go to the Superdome earlier this year and lay the wood to Tulane.  But Rice is no Tulane.  The Owl passing game was again unstoppable in 49-44 shootout at UTEP last week.  The Owls already have six wins this season.  Make it seven after Saturday.  That’s right…the Owls are going bowling again!  Owls 52, Cadets 18

Memphis (-2.5)@ SMU

Memphis needs to win out if they want to go to a bowl game.  After this game, they get UCF and Tulane at home to finish out the season.  I think the Tigers will win out and it starts with a shootout win over SMU.  Tigers 45, Mustangs 38

Marshall (+9.5)@ East Carolina

This is a big game.  Both of these teams are 3-1 in conference, at least two full games ahead of the other four division teams.  So the winner of this game will have the inside track to representing the East in the Conference Championship Game.  Last Thursday, Marshall completely dominated Houston at home.  But before that they have had a pair of close wins over Southern Miss and Memphis and a troubling loss to UAB in conference play.  East Carolina has been on a downslide since the start of the year, though they did find a way to come from behind and beat UCF in overtime last week.  This game really is a toss up.  Either one of these teams could win by three touchdowns or it could go to overtime.  I think home field may play a part in this game.  Pirates 34, Thundering Herd 27

Southern Miss (-1)@ UCF

After predicting they would lose at home to UAB, Southern Miss showed me by scoring 70 points last week, 49 in the first half.  That ended a five game skid for the Golden Eagles, but it came a little too late.  Both of these teams have six losses already, so they are just playing out the season.  Southern Miss is the better team right now, so they get the win.  Golden Eagles 27, Knights 17

Tulane (+14)@ Houston

Last week, Travis Burks scored the only Green Wave touchdown against LSU, an interception returned for a touchdown.  While watching a replay of the game, I also noticed that Burks is the Tulane kickoff return specialist.  Problem with that is that Burks is a linebacker.  It says a lot about your talent level when you have linebackers returning kicks.  I guess Bob Toledo can’t recruit any speed, something that will hurt him this week against the Cougars.  I am looking for a big game from the underachieving Cougars since a loss would make it hard to get to a bowl game.  Cougars 44, Green Wave 26

UTEP (+9)@ Louisiana-Lafayette

Watch out for the Rajin’ Cajuns.  They are on a four game winning streak and are undefeated in the Sun Belt Conference.  However UTEP’s offense has been clicking recently and they will show ULALA how they play football in CUSA…none of this sissy boy Sun Belt football.  Miners 39, Rajin Cajuns 33

Man, picking football games is EASY!  6-0 last week straight up, but more importantly, 6-0 against the spread.  I am the mayor of GeniusTown!  And after last week’s amazing pick’em dominance, I’m 31-30 on the season against the spread.  So that means I’m profitable, bitches!!!!   Now that I’ve proven my Big XII football expertise, I hope that you will take these picks and go make lots of money with them.  Take these picks to the bank.  Well, not the bank, but the sportsbook.  You can do more with them there.  Ok, wait.  Go to the bank FIRST.  Then empty your 401k (if it isn’t empty already), THEN go to the sportsbook and put it ALL on these picks.  Then on Sunday morning you can go buy yourself a fancy sports car!  I’m so confident in my gambling prowess that I’ll refund your money** if these picks don’t hit 100%!!!!

I'm f-in' rich, dog!

** By “refund your money” I mean “ignore all your complaints and death threats, change my name, and move to Zihuatenejo, Mexico.”

Last week: 6-0 (6-0 vs. spread)
Season: 65-7 (31-30 vs. spread)

Kansas State at Kansas (-11)
11am [FSN]
Kansas showed the world the blueprint for beating Texas Tech.  You take everything the Jayhawks did on Saturday, and you do the exact opposite.  KU turnovers consistently gave Tech a short field to work with, Kansas didn’t play a lick of physical defense, and perhaps worst of all, the Jayhawks gave no consideration to controlling time of possession.  Fortunately for KU, they can play any kind of football they want against KSU and still be victorious.  The Wildcats have an absolute disdain for defense this season.  They gave up FIFTY-FIVE first half points to OU.  We all know OU has an explosive offense, but come the f on!  When you give up double nickels in just 30 minutes of play, you are what we football experts like to call, “PISS POOR”.  We’re at a point in the season when teams will start packing it in.  KU could very well be lumbering down the road to Quitsville, but KSU has already built a house and enrolled their kids in school there.  When Ron Prince is fired at the end of this year, KSU will distribute DVD’s chronicling his tenure in Manhattan.  It will be titled “The Ron Prince Era: Return to Futility“.   Everything old is new again, Wildcatfan.   
Jayhawks - 40  Wildcats - 24

Colorado at Texas A&M (-3)
1pm [NO TV]
In this year of the Explosive Superpowered Big XII Offenses, Colorado is sticking to tradition and keeping it real.  No flashy offenses with video game numbers here, boy!   The Buffs kick it old school.  In fact, if Colorado keeps rolling out performances like last week’s dud in Columbia, the Big 10 Conference, or the English Premiere League, are sure to come calling for them in no time.  I now feel like a real idiot for proclaiming that Texas A&M would go winless in conference play.  I just didn’t realize how horrible Iowa State and Colorado would be this year.  This is another winnable game for the Aggies.  Behold, a winning streak in College Station!  After this game is over, go ahead and let your Aggie friends share their excitement with you.  Don’t rain on their parade with silly things like “reason” and “facts”.  It will only make things more entertaining when the Ags get flattened by OU, Baylor, and Texas.  Yeah, I said Baylor. 
Aggies - 31  Buffs - 17

Missouri (-20) at Baylor
2pm [NO TV]
Chase Daniel breaks out into a cold sweat as the team bus heads south on I-35.  He’s relieved when the bus exits at Valley Mills Dr.  Don’t worry Chase, you aren’t headed back down to Austin for another beatdown.  You’re headed to Floyd Casey Stadium, the friendliest (for road teams) venue in the conference!  Baylor is hanging tough, but has suffered two straight road losses.  Let’s see how the young Bears answer the bell.  They’re getting better, but they might have one more demoralizing loss left in their system. 
Tigers - 44  Bears - 20

Iowa State at Oklahoma State (-31)
2:30pm [ABC]
As you know, I like Oklahoma State.  But a 31 point home favorite?  That’s tough.  Now how’s that for some hard-hitting, in-depth analysis???   I can’t get over how badly Iowa State has fallen into the tank.  What in the hell kind of halftime speech did Gene Chizik give during halftime of the Kansas game?  They were up 20-0 on the Jayhawks.  Since then, in the past 14 quarters, the Cyclones have been outscored 157-65.  Did Chizik reenact that scene from The Crying Game during halftime or something? 
Cowboys - 40  Cyclones - 16

Texas (-6) at Texas Tech
7:00pm [ABC]
The key to beating Texas Tech lies in the hands of the Texas offense.  Control the clock, and force Tech into a position of zero margin for error.  Put pressure on them to score every drive.  They know that if they turn the ball over, they are not seeing it again for another 6-8 minutes.  Maybe you get Mike Leach to go insane and go for it on 4^th and 5 from his own 25.  Nebraska was almost successful with this gameplan.  And this gamelans plays right into the strengths of Texas’ highly effective offense.  Despite the lack of a bonecrushing running game, Texas is somehow 3^rd in the country in Time of Possession.  Tech has shown that their defense is a much improved, and theirs is a much more opportunistic squad, so this will not be easy by any means.  It’ll all come down to how the Horns possess the football.  Charitable turnovers = instant death.  Slow, miserly drives resulting in points = great success.  The Horns stay just out in front of Tech for most of the game, and then drop the proverbial hammer with a late Brian Orakpo 20 yard INT for touchdown to seal it.  Yes, I said Orakpo.  Zone blitz, for the win, bitches!  Longhorns 41 - Red Raiders 28

Nebraska at Oklahoma (-21)
7pm [ESPN]
If there’s going to be a shocking upset in Big 12 play this weekend, it’s going to be in Norman.  And aren’t we due?  We haven’t really, truly had a “holy shit, is that score right?” moment in the Big 12 this season.  I am alarmed at how bad OU’s defense has been over the past two weeks.  Todd Reesing and Josh Freeman have absolutely shredded the Sooner secondary.  Sam Bradford had a shaky second half last week, but it’s probably because his arm was about to fall off after he led his team to 55 first half points.  Hope you put ice on that sucker, Sammy.  Nebraska can grind the ball out on people, and Joe Ganz should see plenty of opportunity in the Sooner secondary.  As long as the Huskers don’t implode under the Owen Field lights, this will end up much closer than expected.  Bradford will need to up the completion percentage, or it could be upset city, baby!!! 
 Sooners - 34  Huskers - 24